Conclusions - Military Disasters

So what are we to conclude from this motley crew of examples? In Pearl Harbor, the danger from the Japanese was appreciated by the higher echelons more than by the low level ones. In the Yom Kippur war, the reverse was the case. In either case, the unpersuaded were those in position to prevent the tragedy.

In some of these cases, the unpersuaded tried to make sure that others were not persuaded by incendiary information. In the Yom Kippur war, censorship was employed, and in the case of Dawson and his influential Times, it was self inflicted.

In all these cases, not listening to warnings resulted in major disaster to those who would not listen. In the case of the British appeasers of Hitler, Rowse suggests that a policy which had encouraged the opposition to Hitler could have resulted in a military coup that would have removed him from power.

What is it that all these examples have in common? They bring to mind a term invented by Roger Schank in the domain of computerized artificial intelligence. This term is scripts. He says we bring scripts to many situations in our lives. If we go to a restaurant, for example, we have a set of expectations, from being seated to being waited on, and to the events that will occur, from serving the soup to bringing the check and leaving the tip. Perhaps we bring these scripts to other events as well. In the Yom Kippur war, the script was that the Arabs were incapable of mounting a serious attack, and any clues to agressive intentions were explained away. In the case of Stalin, the script was that Hitler did not have the motive or means to attack the USSR, and similarly, any contrary evidence was explained away. In the case of the British appeasers, the script was that Germany had legitimate claims, and once these claims were met, peace would reign. In the case of the Jews from Wiesel’s village, the script was they were about to endure a military occupation, but they would survive it. In the case of Pearl Harbor it is not clear that anyone had a script saying the Japanese would not attack. However, even with the warnings, it was hard for the warned to make the transition that the Japanese would indeed mount an audacious and determined attack and start a world war with the United States, suddenly and soon.